Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. They composes two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has got something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
